Will the Map of Pakistan Be Redrawn? : Prof. Dilip Phadke

We have witnessed airplanes being hijacked, and we are familiar with pirates of the sea, but the hijacking of a train must be considered a rare event. However, this astonishing incident occurred in Pakistan's Balochistan, once again bringing the Balochistan issue to the world's forefront. The problem of Balochistan, which has become severe today, did not just begin with the creation of Pakistan but has roots stretching back long before. The historical roots of Balochistan can be traced back more than ten thousand years. Near present-day Quetta, at Mehrgarh, an advanced city with a population of about twenty thousand was established. Archaeological excavations in the region have provided evidence that an ancient civilization existed in Balochistan even before the Sumerian and Egyptian cultures. Some researchers also link the Harappan and Mohenjo-Daro civilizations to this ancient culture of Balochistan. Yet, it seems as if this region, with such an ancient history, is cursed, for it has never known political peace or economic prosperity. Armed skirmishes between tribes from Iran and Afghanistan and the local Baloch tribes have always kept the area in a state of turmoil. Today, Balochistan is Pakistan's largest province by area but the most sparsely populated. In terms of natural resources, it is the most significant province in Pakistan. Enormous reserves of gas and mineral oil have been discovered there. Mineral wealth such as gold, copper, iron, chromite, manganese, zinc, and phosphates has given Balochistan a unique importance. The Gwadar port, considered one of the best natural harbors in the world and now controversial due to China's entry, has become the most crucial center in Balochistan in modern times. This means that, especially through its minerals, energy resources, and ports, Balochistan could be the most vital region for Pakistan's economic future. Consequently, the issue of dominance over Balochistan has become critical not only for Pakistan but also from a global political and economic perspective. Looking at the last thousand years of history, various tribes have ruled different parts of Balochistan, meaning that politically, it has never been a unified region. During the time of British India, Balochistan was part of the independent princely state of Kalat. The British brought the region under their influence but never took complete control. Thus, until 1947, Balochistan, or Kalat, was a separate state. Therefore, upon independence, the Khan of Kalat had the right to decide whether to join India, accede to Pakistan, or remain independent, just as the rulers of Hyderabad, Junagadh, Kashmir, and other princely states did. At the time of the India-Pakistan partition, the then-ruler of Balochistan, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, also known as the Khan of Kalat, expressed his desire to remain independent. Initially, Jinnah even supported him. In a curious turn of events, from 1933 to 1939, Jinnah had served as the Khan of Kalat's legal advisor. In his autobiography, , Mir Ahmad Yar Khan wrote, "Mr. Jinnah was our legal adviser and always insisted that Kalat had a separate legal status under treaty obligations with the British." After the establishment of Pakistan, Jinnah's stance changed. He began to pressure Kalat to merge with Pakistan. Jinnah summoned the Khan for negotiations and, under duress, forced him to sign the instrument of accession to Pakistan. At a meeting in Delhi on August 4, 1947, attended by Lord Mountbatten, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Liaquat Ali Khan, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, and their representatives, it was decided that the state of Kalat would be independent from August 5, 1947, and would regain its status under the treaties of 1838 to 1876. It was also agreed that an agreement would be made between Kalat and Pakistan concerning defense, foreign affairs, and communication, and except for these subjects, Balochistan would be autonomous. On August 11, 1947, Pakistan recognized Kalat as an autonomous sovereign state. Regarding this, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan stated, "We have great respect for Jinnah's advice, but there are many tribes in Balochistan. Any decision taken without taking them—the people of Balochistan—into confidence will not be binding on us." This meant that the decision to join Pakistan was not acceptable to the Baloch people. Furthermore, in November 1947, two legislative bodies, the Dar-ul-Awam (House of Commons) and the Dar-ul-Umara (House of Lords), were formed in the state of Kalat. Their sessions began, and in December 1947, the Dar-ul-Awam rejected accession to Pakistan and declared that the state of Kalat would remain fully independent. On January 4, 1948, the Dar-ul-Umara also explicitly rejected the accession, stating it was a violation of traditional values. Subsequently, Pakistan forcibly established its dominance over Balochistan. This led the Baloch leaders and the Khan to feel that Jinnah had deceived them. Verbal assurances were given that Kalat's autonomy would be respected and the merger would not be forced, but in 1948, Pakistan used military intervention to incorporate Balochistan. This event sparked deep resentment among the Baloch people, leading to the formation of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the beginning of an armed struggle for Balochistan's freedom. In addition, the United Baloch Army (UBA) existed from 2013 to 2022, after which it merged with the Baloch Republican Army (BRA) to form the Baloch National Army (BNA). The Baloch Liberation Tigers (BLT) is another effective militant group. On one hand, the Baloch Liberation Army is launching attacks on the Pakistani military and state installations. These attacks are growing more intense by the day. Until a few years ago, the Afghan Taliban assisted the Pakistani army in fighting the BLA, but recently, a rift has developed between the Taliban and Pakistan's rulers, and the Taliban has reportedly begun to aid the BLA. In the first six months of 2025 alone, numerous attacks have been carried out, including the attack on the Jaffer Express, IED blasts in Bolan and Kech districts, 71 attacks on 51 different locations under the integrated strategy of 'Herup 2.0', a 'Tajhidi' suicide attack, the Kalat roadblock attack, and assaults in the Zamuran and Panjgur areas. Notably, the technology and equipment used in these attacks are becoming increasingly sophisticated. These attacks have not only targeted the Pakistani army but have also been directed at Chinese workers and managers working on the Gwadar port and the associated China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. For China, CPEC is a highly ambitious project, and the financial losses and delays caused by these attacks are infuriating Beijing. Alongside the BLA's attacks, the growing protests by the Baloch diaspora, both within Pakistan and abroad, are also unsettling the Pakistani authorities. On the other hand, the oppression and atrocities inflicted upon the Baloch people by Pakistan are having the opposite of the intended effect. This suppression is not new; it has been a consistent policy from Pakistan's first Prime Minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, to the present rulers. The enforced disappearance of thousands of Baloch people has caused alarm among human rights activists worldwide. The Pakistani military is widely accused of being behind these disappearances. The Baloch people feel that the Pakistani government denies them adequate political rights and autonomy. Balochistan is rich in natural resources—such as gas, minerals, coal, and copper—and the Baloch people allege that the central government exploits these resources while giving them nothing in return. Balochistan remains more underdeveloped than other parts of Pakistan, with significant deficits in education, healthcare, employment, and infrastructure. The Baloch people also feel that their culture, language, and traditions are under assault by the central government, leading to a profound sense of marginalization. Now, Baloch groups have moved beyond merely demanding an independent Balochistan. In May 2025, Balochistan declared itself a sovereign nation, separate from Pakistan. Baloch leader Mir Yar Baloch has appealed to the United Nations to recognize the Republic of Balochistan. Pakistan has consistently accused India of fueling the insurgency, alleging that India's RAW is interfering in Balochistan. Retired Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav is imprisoned in Pakistan on these very charges and has been sentenced to death. Many might see a parallel between the Kashmir issue and Balochistan, but there is a fundamental difference concerning the instrument of accession. After independence, Pakistan initially recognized an independent Balochistan. In contrast, Maharaja Hari Singh of Kashmir signed the instrument of accession to India from the outset; India never recognized an independent Kashmir. The Baloch people have almost unanimously maintained their separation from Pakistan, whereas the majority of the Kashmiri population is pro-India, a fact repeatedly demonstrated in elections held there. Despite all this, the question remains: will Balochistan emerge as an independent nation? The answer is not simple. It is a significant question whether neighbouring Afghanistan will assist the Baloch people. It seems unlikely that an unstable Afghanistan, or countries like Russia or Iran, could provide direct assistance to Balochistan. Today, China's economic interests are heavily invested in the region. The policy of the United States under Trump's leadership has been favourable to Pakistan. It is not easy for India to intervene directly, nor does it seem likely that it will. In his 2016 Independence Day speech, Prime Minister Modi mentioned Balochistan, but since then, India has maintained a conspicuous silence on the matter. Although jingoistic voices in India may have wished for Pakistan's disintegration after incidents like the one in Pehelgaon and the subsequent Operation Sadhur, for now, the emergence of an independent Balochistan seems highly improbable. By Prof. Dilip Phadke (This article is the translated version of the original article पाकिस्तानचा नकाशा बदलणार?  written byProf. Dilip Phadke published in the Sahitya Chaprak Diwali Ank 2025 ) https://youtu.be/ccD35YceHN0